When Abigail Spanberger Wins, Virginia Must Be Prepared for What Comes Next

Virginia is not lawless, but its crime rate is comparable to many of the places that Donald Trump has declared war zones. And soon it will bear another similarity, its governor.

Donald Trump has been targeting cities across the nation, spreading false claims about crime and portraying places like Portland as “warzones.” He uses those lies to justify harsh action against blue cities in blue states with Democratic governors. His administration has sought to establish a permanent ICE presence in courthouses and to normalize the use of federal force against American citizens. His advisers, including Stephen Miller, have gone so far as to call judges who rule against him “insurrectionists” and “terrorist sympathizers.”

At this point, it seems clear that Donald Trump is inching toward invoking the Insurrection Act, a move that could upend democratic norms in the United States. Blue states with Democratic governors remain the last meaningful check on his power when all three branches of government are kneeling to his command. In just over a month, Virginia could become the next target on his list.

So far, Virginia has avoided the mass ICE raids that have terrorized other states. We’ve also been spared Trump’s strategic deployment of the National Guard, a tactic he uses to provoke unrest and then justify an even heavier federal response. The pattern is clear: he sends in troops, peaceful demonstrators are tear-gassed, the resulting chaos is used as proof that “more” military intervention is needed. It is a calculated cycle designed to create the appearance of disorder and to justify further repression.

When Abigail Spanberger wins, perhaps even before she takes office, we should expect these same tactics to intensify here. A new Democratic governor would represent one of the most significant challenges to Trump’s authority since his return to power. It would be unsurprising if he contested the results outright. If Spanberger wins by eight to ten points, as current polls suggest, it’s easy to imagine Trump on television calling it fraud: “Nobody ever saw a swing from red to blue like that.”

Virginia and Virginians must be ready. The incoming administration needs a clear plan to respond to any unlawful federal use of force within the state. There must be strong lines of communication between state and local governments, and a readiness to protect civil rights and the rule of law. The strength of Virginia’s institutions, and the resolve of those who lead them, will determine whether our Commonwealth becomes the next bulwark of democracy in the United States.

Thank you to Ian Hutchinson for providing the header image to this article for free under the Unsplash license. https://unsplash.com/photos/yellow-truck-parked-near-bare-trees-during-daytime-GWG6IxeDwYw